In a recent meeting with municipal leaders in the rocket ridden western Negev region, Defense Minister Ehud Barak promised a military operation in the near future to stop rocket fire from the Gaza strip, saying that "the sand in the hourglass is running out."
Many interpreted his enigmatic statement as meaning that a military operation may commence in the next few days, while others believe that it could take months for a serious Israeli response. In any case, Barak's message is clear - Israel is preparing itself for a major Gaza offensive.
This message was echoed recently in a report by London newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi, which claimed that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has decided to renew talks with Hamas after discovering that Israel has decided to re-conquer the Gaza Strip.
According to the report, Abbas is attempting to nip the operation in the bud by holding negotiations with Hamas. Palestinian sources told the paper that after conquering Gaza, Israel will slowly transfer control over the Strip back to the Palestinians.
If this report is indeed true, it appears that Barak is attempting to blur his message and refrain from giving Hamas any clues, but apparently he already decided – even before the cabinet meeting and consultations with other ministers – that a truce with Hamas without a military blow that precedes it is no longer a realistic option.
It appears that on this issue he is in agreement with the prime minister. The IDF chief of staff also decided that there is no other way but a military operation, even though the political leadership is unable to point to a required diplomatic achievement that would stem from this high-risk military move.
The army would perhaps prefer air attacks accompanied by some ground operations against a very large number of Hamas targets. Yet this is not very realistic, because for such activity to take place military intelligence and the Shin Bet are supposed to provide hundreds of high-quality targets, and this, how shall we put it, is not quite working out.
What is left is to take over problematic areas on the ground, using the air power lever, in the hopes that developments would not require a reserves call-up and full occupation of the Strip.
On Thursday, we still saw contacts between the Defense Ministry and the Egyptians regarding the answers Israel is supposed to provide to the truce offer and regarding a trip by top defense official Amos Gilad to Egypt. For the time being, Gilad is not going anywhere, Hamas is not giving any good reason to believe in the truce, and the IDF is on alert ahead of various types of operations in the Strip.
We are talking about phased activity, the plans are in place, and the army is practicing at this time. If the activity expands to occupying significant parts of the Strip for long periods of time there is also a plan for a reserves call-up. 06/08/08
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